After this weekend, we'll likely have our rough final numbers for the domestic box office haul for "The Post." It's currently only in 159 theaters across the U.S., so the returns are diminishing significantly. Couple that with the fact that it didn't get much of a boost after the Oscars, as it was completely absent from the winners' list, and it's pretty easy to see where it will end up. As this goes to post, the film has grossed $81 million on a $50m budget. Not too shabby for a political drama with no special effects. In foreign markets it has taken in another $73m, bringing its worldwide total past $154m. It's just starting to get released in Asia, so I expect that foreign number to bounce a bit before all is said and done.
I'm not super concerned typically with major box office success just for the sake of it, but I enjoy when Meryl's films do well commercially because it means it's far more likely for projects she'd be interested in doing to get greenlit. The film will be available on digital media on April 4, with its DVD/Blu-ray release date set for April 17.
It's not like anyone was expecting Meryl to win, but last night she lost for the the fourth consecutive time at the Academy Award, bringing her overall total to 3-for-21. Congratulations to Frances McDormand, who, as expected, took the Best Actress prize for her performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. This was McDormand's second win, after 1996's Fargo.
Streep looked amazing on the red carpet, and of course got mentioned in host Jimmy Kimmel's monologue. Hard to believe it was just under a year turnaround from when it was announced she would be starting in The Post to when the awards season wrapped up. That's some crazy quick work. The quest can now begin for Meryl's next nominated performance. My guess it will be in something she has yet to announce.
The only real upset was The Shape of Water taking Best Picture over Three Billboards. Not a huge surprise, considering Guillermo del Toro won director, while Martin McDonagh (director of Three Billboards) wasn't even nominated.
In other news, the first trailer for Mary Poppins Returns was revealed during the Oscar telecast. It's not much more than a teaser, as we barely see Emily Blunt and none of the other main cast members except for Lin-Manuel Miranda. I hope that we get a full trailer or at least a few stills of Meryl's character Topsy within a month or two.
The Oscars are on Sunday! I'm putting this out a little early because I'll be traveling to sunny New Zealand and am not sure when I'll get a chance to post this weekend. My choices are sort of lame because almost everyone at this point will (or at least should) have the same predictions in the picture/director and acting categories. I'll provide my guesses for winners as well as a potential spoiler. Sad to say, Meryl will not be coming anywhere near a win this year.
Best Picture Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. The Shape of Water
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
alt. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Actress in a Leading Role
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
alt. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Actor in a Leading Role
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Actress in a Supporting Role
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
alt. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
alt. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
To be honest, I'll be really surprised if any of the above six picks don't win. For a race that seemed rather open only two months ago, this now seems like one of the most predictable seasons in recent memory.
The Post is entering its fourth weekend in wide release. To date, the film has earned about $62 million at the domestic box office and $24m foreign, for a worldwide total of about $85m. This weekend already has estimates for another $6m, which would bring its U.S. total close to $68m. Against a budget of $50m, these are decent receipts. I've read that a film typically needs to make at least 2-2.5 times its budget to actually see profits, as marketing and other costs I probably don't fully understand factor in greatly. Overall though, I imagine that 20th Century Fox is pleased with the results.
What I like most about the fact that the film should have no problem getting over $75m domestic is that it reinforces Meryl as a financial draw for films. Of course I like that good numbers also show that people are actually showing up to her films too, but I care more that it keeps doors open for projects to get greenlit for production. I remember reading that after The Devil Wears Prada, Meryl was "besieged" with offers due to the film's success, which is apparently what got Julie & Julia off the ground.
With her only future projects at this point being for TV (Big Little Lies and The Nix), it's exciting to look forward to, and of course speculate on, what might be her next big role for the silver screen.
Academy Award nominations will of course be announced tomorrow morning, and Meryl is in the running for her 21st nod. Only a year ago at this time, she had no definitive projects in the pipeline for 2017 until it was announced in March that Steven Spielberg would direct her in The Post. The film is currently in its second week in wide release, and is already up to $45 million domestically. Were it to snag a few Oscar noms, it would be a helpful little marketing tool.
So what do we think the likelihood of Meryl getting nominated is? To the casual observer, it seems like a foregone conclusion: prominent director, biopic, captures political zeitgeist, best reviews Meryl's received for a lead role since The Iron Lady, 88% on Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic score of 83, promising box office. Streep has gotten in for a lot less. How could she possibly miss this year?
One of the reasons it may be tough is the fact that there are so many wonderful performances this year in equally wonderful films. Frances McDormand, Sally Hawkins, Saoirse Ronan, Jessica Chastain, Margot Robbie, Judi Dench, Annette Bening, Michelle Williams. There's a lot of competition and Meryl isn't exactly the fresh new face on the scene. Another reason is that she's been relatively absent from recognition among most critics groups this season. Yes, she received the National Board of Review Award, but other prominent voting bodies have rarely even included her among their top five. Not that this has necessarily stopped her before, just see Into the Woods and August: Osage County. Most pundits I've read have Meryl predicted in their top five, but generally toward the bottom of the list.
Maybe I'm being paranoid, as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has historically been rather fond of Meryl's work. And if I'm being realistic, imagining the actors' body of the Academy, with their preferential ballots, having Meryl so low on their lists that she would place no higher than sixth overall? That seems unlikely. Ultimately, I'm predicting the following five, which seem to be the general consensus among Best Actress contenders at this point:
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Regardless of whether or not Meryl is nominated or snubbed, her performance as Katharine Graham is exquisite and will be remembered as one of her finest.
Although Meryl (and The Post) were completely shut out for SAG nominations this year, I'm still going to post my predictions in the film acting categories. One of the joys of this year's race is how competitive each category is, as there are multiple "frontrunners," but the certainty of any one win is less secure than an year in recent memory.
Outstanding Cast Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt: Get Out Female Actor in a Leading Role
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
alt: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Male Actor in a Leading Role
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Female Actor in Supporting Role
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
alt: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
alt: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
If my predictions turn out right, Three Billboards will position itself as the strong frontrunner in several Oscar categories, including Best Picture. Academy Award nominations are announced Tuesday starting at 8:22 EST.
It's hard to believe that it was only twelve months ago when after having read a copy of the Hollywood Blacklist script, The Post, that I blogged about what a fine opportunity I thought it would be for Meryl to play the film's central character, publisher Katharine Graham. Fast forward two months later, and it's announced that Steven Spielberg had signed on to direct, with Streep and Tom Hanks set to star. The film was fast-tracked into production and with filming wrapped by July, here we are at the movie's nationwide opening weekend. And what a weekend it's likely going to be.
Last night, I joined my friend Scooter for a 6:40 showing of The Post,not far from my home in Minneapolis. Despite the subzero temperatures, it was the busiest I've ever seen the large theater complex, with folks forced to wait in line after purchasing their tickets just to get inside the main area. It was nice to see that our theater was completely full.
The film starts out with a brief background on the Vietnam War, setting up the conflict that would engulf the film's plot, about whether or not the Washington Post should publish classified documents from a study that were leaked from the Pentagon. In the papers, the folly of the U.S.'s involvement is explained in some detail. Matthew Rhys (whom I adore from The Americans) gets some nice screen time here as former military analyst, Daniel Ellsberg.
Meryl of course portrays Graham, who at this time in her life and career is less than confident in her role as the paper's publisher, a role that had essentially become hers by default after her father's death and husband's suicide. The acquisition of the Pentagon Papers puts her in a tricky situation, as an injunction from the White House threatens disaster. As we all know, the Supreme Court sides with the paper and the publishing is allowed to continue.
OK, now that a brief plot synopsis is out of the way, let's get to some aspects of the film's quality. Both Scooter and I really enjoyed it and remarked at how quickly it went by, with the suspenseful pace always keeping us on the edge our seats. Meryl does an exquisite job of showing us the significant lack of confidence and almost paralyzing trepidation Graham had at making big decisions that often involved the viability of her company. Being that the paper was tied up with the history of her family, and that many on the board weren't convinced as a woman she was suitable for the job, decisions surrounding the company's fate were particularly taxing. How she transitioned throughout the movie into a decisive boss was enjoyable to experience. It was by no means a broad or showy performance. Instead, it was measured, subtle and touching. In the original version of the script I had read, there was a moving speech that she gave in front of the court which I was looking forward to seeing, but sadly was either cut after filming, or cut completely from the screenplay. I wonder if it seemed a bit too "on the nose" to keep in the film.
Tom Hanks similarly does a fine job as editor Ben Bradlee. A lot of people have complained about Hanks's somewhat affected speech patterns in the role, but I never felt distracted by his choices, and thought his moments were Meryl were strong and at times funny. A standout was Bob Odenkirk as journalist Ben Bagdikian, who manged to acquire the papers from Daniel Ellsberg and was instrumental in the ultimate decision to publish.
Regular Spielberg collaborator Janusz Kaminski provided an aura of the 1970s with an almost glossy effect in many scenes, highlighting the smoke-filled, often neutral tones of that era. John Williams's rousing score contributes to the sort of time-crunch angst we feel in their race against the clock. And there's probably not much left to say that hasn't been said about Spielberg. While the film is often intense and fast-paced, we get a real sense of intimacy with the characters and their struggle through the grueling and likely terrifying process of first acquiring the papers, deciphering them and then waiting to learn their fates in the aftermath of publishing. Scooter and I both enjoyed and appreciated the shots of how a newspaper is physically pulled together in the shop for each printing. For something that is as ubiquitous as a daily paper, that was a process neither of us had ever really seen before on screen.
The film is a perfect allegory to the preposterous political environment in which we currently find ourselves. Using real recordings of phone conversations of former president Richard Nixon was a painful comparison to what is so evident in today's administration and its constant attacks on the free press. The Post was an important reminder that the first amendment right of free speech is excellently demonstrated in journalistic integrity. As justice Hugo Black opined in the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling, "in the First Amendment, the Founding Fathers gave the free press the protection it must have to fulfill its essential role in our democracy. The press was to serve the governed, not the governors."
I'm glad Meryl was able to participate in the making of this movie.
Like the SAG nominations last month, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts has left The Post bereft of nominations. To be honest, I almost forgot about these nominations being announced, since I had no expectations for Meryl getting in, but it's never good when your film is completely shut out.
Couple things to think about, though. The top four ladies I'd expect to get noms for Lead Actress from almost any body (Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan) did. The shock to me was that Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul), a favorite with BAFTA and already a nominee at the Globes and SAG, was passed over in favor of Annette Bening for Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool. Despite the miss, I think this bodes well for Meryl for a few reasons: if Dench can't get in at BAFTA, she's far less likely to get in with AMPAS (Academy Awards). Also, Bening, like Dench, is in a British film, which tends to help. We should remember that The Post is a decidedly American film that likely was seen by fewer voting members of BAFTA due to its late release, and it doesn't open in U.K. theaters until next week.
All that might be a bit of rationalizing, but I'm also trying to stay positive for Meryl's chances at a 21st Oscar nomination. I still think it'll happen, but I have to admit I'm a little nervous. Her many television appearances this week (Kimmel, Ellen, Graham Norton) should hopefully help boost box office a bit, with the film going wide in the U.S. this weekend. I have plans to see it on Saturday evening.
It's really difficult to call winter my least favorite season, because it includes possibly my favorite period of the year: awards season! Tomorrow night, the Hollywood Foreign Press will hand out their Golden Globe Awards for achievement in film and television. As usual, I enjoy predicting the winners in the acting categories. Check out the starred(*) names below among the nominees for my winners selections.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
1. Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
2. Sally Hawkins* (The Shape of Water)
3. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
4. Meryl Streep (The Post)
5. Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
1. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
2. Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver)
3. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
4. Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
5. Daniel Kaluuya* (Get Out)
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
1. Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
2. Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker)
3. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
4. Saoirse Ronan* (Lady Bird)
5. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
1. Willem Dafoe* (The Florida Project)
2. Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
5. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
1. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
2. Hong Chau (Downsizing)
3. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
4. Laurie Metcalf* (Lady Bird)
5. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)\
In my opinion, this is by far the best chance Meryl has at picking up a major televised award this year. The Post was completely shut out at SAG, and it's not even a foregone conclusion that she will get an Oscar nomination. But the HFPA love her, and if she were to come away with a win in this category tomorrow, I'll relax a little in regard to her chances for a nom. Let's not forget her speech last year at the ceremony (see clip below)? She is in a film about the importance of a free press, and they might want to reward her.
Happy New Year, everyone! As I patiently wait for January 12 to roll around, I'm sucking up any and all clips I can get of Meryl in The Post. Earlier today, a new video was released by HBO Screening Room of director Steven Spielberg and his two stars (Streep and Tom Hanks), discussing a key scene early on in the film:
I can remember reading the script about a year ago and specifically thinking about this scene, where Meryl's character Katharine Graham sort of tussles with her editor Ben Bradlee. The two bicker about the style section of the paper and, as they discuss in the video, at times it seems more like Bradlee is Graham's boss, not the other way around. It sort of sets the stage for a transformation that I'm sure Meryl negotiates wonderfully as the film progresses.
Getting excited for this and the Golden Globes Sunday!
Many have already had the pleasure of seeing The Post in theaters, but for those of us not residing in New York, Los Angeles or D.C., we have to wait until January 12.
Earlier today, a brief featurette with some new footage from the film was released.
A few good snippets from Meryl, Tom Hanks and director Steven Spielberg. I'm annoyed I have to wait two more weeks to see this!
Over the long holiday weekend, The Post had a strong showing, averaging over $58K in just nine theaters in New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. The film took in a total of $830K between the three cities.
Evidently this is a very good start, and I hope the trend continues. With the movie going wide in a little over two weeks, we'll get a real sense of how it's going to do long-term. Certainly if Meryl or the film happen to bag any Globes on the 7th, it'll hopefully help further boost interest.
The Post was completely shut out from the Screen Actors Guild award nominations this morning. While it's certainly possible that the voting members just weren't big fans of the film, after its strong showing with the Hollywood Foreign Press two days ago, one has to wonder if the early concerns about the film's late release, and therefore sort of last minute effort to send out screeners, may have played a factor in its lack of recognition from SAG.
Regardless, this is a blow for Meryl's Oscar chances, as well as Tom Hanks, Steven Spielberg and the film itself. If Meryl somehow manages to bag the Golden Globe for Actress in a Drama, however, I'll be much more relaxed about her possibilities. If I'm being as objective as I possibly can, I still think it is extremely unlikely that Streep will be snubbed by the Academy for a film that's getting good reviews and raves for her. Time will tell of course, and it makes this season a really fun and exciting one to watch.
The five actors nominated in Meryl's category were as follows:
As expected, Meryl was nominated this morning for a record 31st time (breaking her own record) by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for her performance in The Post. The film also receive noms for Best Picture-Drama, Best Director (Steven Spielberg), Best Actor-Drama (Tom Hanks), Best Screenplay (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer) and Best Score (John Williams). Only The Shape of Water had more nominations, with seven.
Meryl's co-nominees for Best Actress in a Drama were as follows:
Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
Williams was a surprise, at director Ridley Scott did re-shoots on his film, replacing Kevin Spacey with Christopher Plummer (who happened to bag a nom in supporting).
Some of the main contenders for Oscar nominations happen to be in the Musical/Comedy category this year, namely Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird and Margot Robbie for I, Tonya. The nominees in that category also included Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul), Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes). I don't expect to see Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) at future awards shows.
SAG noms announced on Wednesday!
The full list of Golden Globe nominees can be found here.
A new clip from The Post was released today, showing a brief interaction between Meryl's character Kay Graham and her editor Ben Bradlee (Tom Hanks):
Just the few seconds before they walk into the room shows some wonderful production design. We don't really get a ton from the acting in this scene, but can see Graham's trepidation about what her role may be if the Pentagon Papers become accessible to the Washington Post.
Two days after formal reviews were allowed online, the film stands at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes with 60 reviews counted thus far.
The Broadcast Film Critics Association released their nominations Wednesday, and The Post came away with eight nominations:
1. Best Picture
2. Best Director (Steven Spielberg)
3. Best Actress (Meryl Streep)
4. Best Actor (Tom Hanks)
5. Best Original Screenplay (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer)
6. Best Editing (Michael Kahn, Sarah Broshar)
7. Best Score (John Williams)
8. Best Acting Ensemble
This awards body is historically a bit 'low brow,' but it does its best at being a barometer for what Academy members are likely to go for. Regardless, it's the first televised awards show to announce its nominations, and with both Golden Globe and SAG noms announced next week, it's important for Meryl makes it in here. The Critics' Choice Awards will be held Thursday, January 11.
The embargo has been lifted on official reviews for The Post. They started flowing in fast and furious this morning, but I wanted to wait until evening to blog about it so that we had a better sense of where this might actually end up. As this post is published the film stands at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes with 48 reviews counted, and at a score 82 on Metacritic, indicating "universal acclaim" with 19 reviews in. Suffice it to say, the film is being very well received by critics. The numbers are going to change a bit, with the Rotten Tomatoes score probably the most likely to see a bump up or down, as we're likely to get up to 150 additional reviews when all is said and done.
Perhaps more important, however, is that while The Post is generally getting good to great reviews, Meryl, for her lead performance as publisher Kay Graham, is getting raves. Many of the critics are saying it's her best role in years, and considering the somewhat growing impression from some that Streep has been going too broad for many of her recent high profile roles, this apparently more subdued performance is striking a cord with even the most cynical of reviewers.
It's too early to tell for sure where the film itself will end up, but I'm guessing it'll hover around 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, which will be good for its awards chances. If it somehow managed to sneak up to 85%, we're looking at a scenario of not only the picture receiving 5+ Academy Award nominations, but a real chance for Meryl to actually win her fourth. It seems like only yesterday that I was sitting on my parents' couch, after everyone else was asleep on Christmas Eve, reading the script for The Post and thinking 'this is so up Meryl's alley.' And here we are, only eleven months later(!) and discussing the film's chances for Oscar gold in March.
Yesterday, Showbiz411 released an article in which director Greta Gerwig is quoted as saying that she's meeting with Meryl next week to discuss a film she's writing for her. OMG!
Gerwig of course is the screenwriter and director of Lady Bird, which is currently slaying in theaters and drawing the attention of critics groups. Earlier this week, the film set a record for the most consecutive "fresh" reviews ever on Rotten Tomatoes, with a 100% score after 180 reviews (at time of posting).
I have no idea what the role might possibly be that she's written for Streep, but I have to admit, I've thought about what it might be like for Gerwig to write and direct Meryl on screen. Gerwig is likely to become only the fifth woman ever to receive an Academy Award nomination for Best Director, and with that pedigree, the fact that she is specifically interested in writing a role for Meryl...well, I'm over the moon (although I still REALLY wish there were a way for Meryl to play Hildy Good in the The Good House).
Excited to see what the next year of new projects holds for our girl.
By the way, I read this bit of info on the current status of The Nix yesterday:
Just a few minutes after I posted about the first social media sentiments for The Post and how favorable they were for Meryl, the National Board of Review announced their selections for best films and performances. In addition to The Post being awarded the top prize, its two lead stars, Meryl and Tom Hanks were both recognized with Best Actress and Actor awards, respectively.
If memory serves, this is the first time Meryl has received this award since her legendary turn in 1982's Sophie's Choice. As the first major precursor award of the season, these NBR results add to the already strong buzz that is building for both The Post and Meryl's apparently brilliant performance. Keep 'em comin'.
The stupid "social media sentiment" embargo for The Post was lifted last night, and since it has already screened to a large number of Academy members, SAG members, critics, journalists and various other media outlets, everyone is now tweeting out their initial thoughts. Entertainment Weekly has a nice crop of the generally positive reactions here.
Of course not every opinion praises the film, but I've read through several articles, including over a dozen pages of comments on Awards Watch, and the general sentiment is definitely that the film is very good. More exiting, however, is that Meryl is being almost universally praised for her understated performance as publisher Katharine Graham. Many are saying it's her best performance in a decade, and that she's by far the best thing about an already good movie.
This is a big deal, folks. We'll know more next week when official reviews can be published on December 6, but Meryl is almost guaranteed a nomination at this point with the feedback we're getting. If Streep is generally raved for her performance, the film reviews result in a Rotten Tomatoes score above 80% or Metacritic score above 80 and the box office ends up being over $100 million, without even mentioning the combined pedigrees of the filmmakers/cast and an extremely topical subject matter, not only will the picture be in contention for the top prize, but so will Meryl for her record-tying fourth Academy Award.
