We're heading into November. That means prime Oscar buzz season. All the films have release dates, some are already in theaters (remember those?), and most have had either a full trailer or even clips and reviews released. We're still waiting for a full trailer for Don't Look Up, but considering it's set for a limited theater release in early December prior to its Netflix release on Christmas Eve, I expect it could any time now.
Which leads me to sizing up Meryl's chances at awards recognition this year. She's almost always in the conversation regardless of the film she's in, but this film has a stellar cast with a director whom the Academy has generally seemed to enjoy. There's been some buzz recently that recent screenings resulted in very positive reactions from critics, but considering no one will be allowed to write official reviews for several weeks, it's hard to know what's true and what's not.
I tend to think that Don't Look Up could really end up on either end of the spectrum, as far as critical response. If the film is received very well, it could reasonably contend for a Best Picture nomination. I could also see screenplay, as well well as Lead Actor and Actress. Some are saying Jonah Hill and Mark Rylance might challenge for Supporting Actor. One can't help but wonder or even expect that if all goes well, Meryl might enter the top five for Supporting Actress. We haven't seen a lot of the role, but it seems a foregone conclusion at this point that her character of President Orlean is going to channel Donald Trump in some way. This might be a harmful thing for her chances, or potentially her best way forward for a nomination. There are also going to be a ton of other worthy contenders.
Awards Worthy currently has the following top five in its predictions:
1. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
2. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
3. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
4. Ruth Negga (Passing)
5. Judi Dench (Belfast)
While the "experts" at Gold Derby include these:
1. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
2. Ann Dowd (Mass)
3. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
4. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
5. Marlee Matlin (CODA)
It's natural to think that Meryl has little to no chance, seeing how she's not even cracking the top five in these rankings. But there's some pretty glaring disparity here, and it's worth noting that she's standing at sixth over at Awards Worthy, and all it's going to take is a handful of stellar reviews to solidly skyrocket her into the top five. People love it when someone swoops in to shake up the race. This year, it might as well be our girl.