Here's the breakdown on precursor nominations for our top six contenders:
GG/SAG/BFCA/BAFTA
Cate Blanchett (Globe win)
Sandra Bullcok
Judi Dench
Emma Thompson
GG/SAG/BFCA
Meryl Streeep
GG/BAFTA
Amy Adams (Globe win)
On paper I'd rather have Meryl's precursor tally, but Adams's win over Meryl in the same Globe category (Musical/Comedy) probably trumps that. There is of course precedent for winning a Globe and then not being nominated for Oscar. A couple of notable mentions include Kathleen Turner who won the Globe for 1985's Prizzi's Honor (which was nominated for Best Picture) and was then passed over for an Oscar nom, while Madonna won for 1996's Evita (over Frances McDormand in Fargo) only to be snubbed while McDormand was not only nominated but ended up winning the Oscar. Both of these occurrences were in the Musical/Comedy category.
This year could possibly be somewhat similar, although the cards are stacked against Meryl in my opinion considering the aforementioned box office success of American Hustle and its far less polarizing reviews compared to August: Osage County. There's always the possibility of Emma Thompson or Judi Dench maybe missing out but I just can't picture either of them getting snubbed. As of tonight my predictions for Thursday are:
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Emma Thomspson (Saving Mr. Banks)
5. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
6. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
In the name of all that is holy I hope I'm wrong.
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Emma Thomspson (Saving Mr. Banks)
5. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
6. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
In the name of all that is holy I hope I'm wrong.
I think Meryl has a 50/50 chance of an Oscar nod. It really seems Meryl is
ReplyDeleteexperiencing a backlash from the industry folks for her win for the Iron Lady. Many
feel it was undeserved and her campaigning for the gold for TIL was over the top as
in "I really, really deserve another Oscar". I hope Mer does not fall into the backlash territory of Winslet and Sarandon...
I agree it's sort of 50/50 but regardless I imagine it's a pretty close count for spots 4-6. It remains to be seen regarding the "backlash." It doesn't necessarily mean Academy members are throwing her to the wolves. This is a very competitive/strong year for Best Actress and yes, after Meryl winning, some may look elsewhere with their #1 votes. To some degree, it'll be difficult to ignore Meryl for long, as essentially every performance is Oscar nomination worthy and she can't be denied too long.
DeleteThe backlash is really sad. I don't think the rollout for August Osage County has been good on Weinstein's part and I think that has hurt Streep some also. I really think her AOC portrayal of Violet is up at the top of the list for her....doesn't top Sophie's Choice but it's at the top of the other performances to me.
ReplyDeleteIt really is too bad that she's not getting better reactions for her role. How she was able to negotiate the complexities of Violet Weston was astounding. NO ONE could do that as adeptly as Meryl. Sad that in a competitive year her amazing performance may be an also-ran due to her recent win. A shame.
DeleteI agree, it was a wonderful performance and definitely in her overall top 5 for me. I don’t necessarily agree that Meryl truly campaigned for The Iron Lady as such, I think she just did nothing to reign in Harvey Weinstein’s machine! And I don’t blame her for a second - that prize could easily have gone to the second best performance of that year had no-one fought Meryl’s corner (as it has numerous times before).
DeleteI am still rooting for a nomination as I had already mentally pressed her count up to 18 many months ago when I first read of this project and I don’t want the trouble of moving it back down! My only consolation if she is denied will be eventually when all the fuss has died down that people re-assess this time and admit what an amazing piece of work is going under-appreciated and misunderstood. I’m sure if the worst happens on Thursday we will see Meryl’s name near the top of future “Unbelievable snubs and Oscar mistakes” lists thereafter…
Major snub in my opinion if Meryl is left off the list Thursday morning.
DeleteI do appreciate that it is one of the most competitive years in recent history but Oscar would really lose credibility if this performance wasn’t recognised.
DeleteCan I ask who was playing Violet when you saw it on stage? I watched about 40 minutes of the play on youtube and wasn’t in the slightest bit impressed with the acting from anyone (Deena Dunagan version). It seemed very amateurish and had little dramatic tension. Maybe you had to be there!
I just felt that Meryl really made the character not only understandable but also infused the part with a lot of dramatic tension through her choices of tone and delivery. One small example was when she asked the men if they were at a funeral dinner or a cockfight. You could tell this was the start of a bumpy ride. Deena Dunagan seemed to deliver her lines without very much intent or punch. Maybe it’s just my biased opinion!
You know one critic even suggested that Meryl was wrong for this part and someone like Melissa Leo would be better. Yuck.
Sorry CJames forgot to respond to your post yesterday. When I saw the play Estelle Parsons was Violet. My partner and I thought she was absolutely incredible in the role and we both loved the play. That's part of the reason I've been so personally so invested in this film because I've loved the role for four years and am so thrilled that my favorite actor was able to portray it on film. As I'm writing this the Oscar nominations are about 7.5 hrs away. I hope the next time I check in with my blog I can say Meryl's been nominated 18 times.
Delete