Saturday, February 11, 2017

My BAFTA predictions

The BAFTAs are a bit of an enigma for me at times.  At others, I look at the results in hindsight and think "duh."  More than the other "big three" awards shows, BAFTA tends very heavily to recognize British nominees.  One might think that's to be expected, but it makes for a trickier prediction plan.  The eligible films tend to vary as well.  If a movie isn't given a wide release in the U.K. by year's end (I think), it isn't eligible for BAFTA awards.  That's the same in the U.S. for Golden Globes, SAGs and Oscars.  This year, the most obvious performance missing from the lineup due to eligibility is Isabelle Huppert in Elle.  It will be interesting to see if she gets nominated next year.  If she manages to win the Oscar this year, I can't imagine she doesn't at least get a nom.  Ok, here are my acting predictions.

Actress in a Leading Role
Emma Stone (La La Land)

Seriously Meryl may have a chance here due to the U.K. connections of Florence Foster Jenkins (Stephen Frears, Hugh Grant, filmed in the U.K.), but unlikely.  I'm seeing Jackie today but for some reason the buzz around Natalie Portman seems to have significantly dwindled.

Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

I honestly think Denzel Washington will win the Oscar, but he was snubbed here (bizarre).  So if Affleck doesn't win the BAFTA, I think it's game-set-match for Denzel at the Dolby.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis (Fences)

Viola better win, but Naomie Harris also does a great job in Moonlight and she is English.  Only possible alternative to Davis in my opinion.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

I'm pretty confident here, but maybe Hugh Grant?  His nomination may be seen as his one chance at an acting award, and since he didn't make the top five for Oscar (and he too is English), I wouldn't be shocked if it were him.  Dev Patel could also surprise.

The ceremony evidently begins at 7:00 pm London time (1:00 pm CST U.S.), but it won't be broadcast on British TV until two hours later for whatever reason.  I haven't seen anywhere to live stream, but I'm sure there will be something available if I dig around a bit.  Enjoy!


  1. The BAFTAs are always a tad unpredictable. If Huppert were up this year I would have said she had the edge here given previous voting records.

    Also, it can take a very long time for BAFTA to warm to someone. I know some huge stars in the US who have got lots of awards but never get a look in at this ceremony.

    Do you feel at this point Viola is the biggest certainty for an Oscar? I'll be interested to hear what you think of Jackie/Portman. I agree, I'm guessing failure to win any of the big awards thus far (esp the GG which many felt was hers for the taking) has greatly diminished that buzz.

    1. I do think Viola is the biggest certainty at the Oscars. Natalie Portman was fantastic in Jackie. The film itself is a bit groggy and her voice bugged me at first, but had she not won a few years ago, Emma Stone wouldn't stand a chance.

  2. Even though, the best actress this year is for sure Isabelle Hupert...

    1. It's a shame when a performer's previous win/s count against them when they give the most outstanding working but if it didn't and everyone went into the "race" on a level playing field Meryl wouldn't have "just" 3 Oscars..!

      I agree, I do think Huppert would have stood a good chance of a win last night had she qualified to run..

    2. Totally agree. She'd have at least 5.

    3. Loved that threat we had a few years ago about where Meryl might have placed in the voting for each awards.

      The most egregious losses IMO were A Cry in the Dark, Adaption and Doubt. Silkwood closely follows.

  3. I am sorry but Meryl was also absolutely robbed in 2010, whwn Sandra Bullock won over her performance in Julie and Julia.


    1. Whilst I agree Meryl's was a better, more difficult performance I was not sorry she didn't win for a summer popcorn movie (as entertaining as it was). Compared to some of her other work it just felt a little too light even though she nailed it.

      It just doesn't feel like a powerhouse performance like Sophie or Joanna or Thatcher for that matter (in spite of that movie's shortcomings).

      I also thought she was totally deserving for Madison County but the problem is I haven't seen all the competing performances that year..