Oscar race update

I know, I know, it's September.  Looking past the obvious reservations some may have at prognosticating about what mood the collective minds of voting members in the AMPAS will be in around January, I'd like to share my thoughts about the current "state of the race."   When I  last posted on this topic,  I  guessed Meryl would fall anywhere from sixth to eighth in the run for an Oscar nomination.  As of today, with updated predictions on Gold Derby from "experts" this week,  I probably have to keep her in the same slot.  I've been regularly perusing the scratchy comments from the rabid divas on Awards Daily Forums, and with some interesting points being made on the "best actress" thread, I thought Meryl's chances may be better than I had originally predicted.  But I think Gold Derby tends to be a little more accurate come awards season, and it's probably because they mostly predict safe bets at this point.  Again, we have four months before Oscar nominations come out (and for the first time before the Globes), so plenty can change.  Meryl may be an afterthought in six weeks, or she may firmly solidify herself in some top five lists.  In fine pessimistic tradition, I think her chances at an 18th nomination for Hope Springs this year are dubious.

In beginning my lazy scouting of Meryl's competition, last night I dragged Joe to Beasts of the Southern Wild.  I have to admit, Quevenzhane Wallis was superb.  As a caveat to that statement however, I'd categorize the performance as superb for a nine year-old (she may be ten now, whatev).  It's a hard sell for me to believe that someone that young is really making organic and skilled acting choices.  I wonder how much of what I saw was from the director's point of view...a sort of "puppeteering" rather than an individual characterization from the actor.  The question makes including Wallis's performance in the Academy Awards conversation a bit of an enigma for me.   Regardless, Joe and I both enjoyed the film.  Although I found it at times fantastically gross, I left with an overall sentiment of family and community preservation.  And yes, a great impression if its young lead.