As the most nominated actor in Globes history, Streep will be seeking her 30th nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association next week. Normally, a nod is a foregone conclusion. With the tepid critical and box office responses to August's Ricki and the Flash, however, Meryl's almost automatic nomination could be in jeopardy this year.
Up to this point, I've only seen Meryl's performance and one other that is likely in contention, Amy Schumer in Trainwreck. According to the "experts" at Gold Derby, the current odds for Actress in a Musical or Comedy are as follows:
1. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) 14/5 odds
2. Lily Tomlin (Grandma) 3/1
3. Amy Schumer (Trainwreck) 4/1
4. Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van) 10/1
5. Blythe Danner (I'll See You in My Dreams) 18/1
6. Melissa McCarthy (Spy) 18/1
7. Meryl Streep (Ricki and the Flash) 20/1
8. Sandra Bullock (Our Brand is Crisis) 25/1
After the top eight, all contenders as given 100/1 odds.
Ok, a few thoughts. At the top of the list, we have Jennifer Lawrence, who has been regularly in award conversations for almost five consecutive years now. And Joy's positioning is highly likely category fraud. I'm not even going to get into it, because the occurrence is perennial and widely known. For crying out loud, even The Martian is competing in the Musical/Comedy category this year. We just have to deal with it.
I enjoy that the majority of actresses in this category are over the age of 40. In the top eight, four are over 65, two over 45. Schumer is 34 and Lawrence, the front-runner, is 25.
Meryl is totally on the bubble for a nomination in my opinion. I cannot imagine that Sandra Bullock will get in for a film that made back only quarter of its budget and is only at 33% on Rotten Tomatoes. But I have a hard time figuring out whom among the top five could be replaced. Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Schumer are locks in my opinion. Do they dare not recognize Tomlin, Danner and Smith? Three women of a generation that is increasingly less visible in cinemas of leading ladies. I suppose the same could be said for Meryl, but come on.
The only path I can foresee for Meryl's name to be mentioned next Thursday is that voting members of the HFPA want to ensure higher viewership for their telecast. Meryl's absence in a year where she has a film in contention may seem bizarre to filmgoers. Fingers crossed.
The Golden Globe Awards will be announced December 10.