I know it's kind of unsavory calling it a "race," considering it really shouldn't be about competition. Alas, with millions of dollars being flooded into promotional FYC campaigns, I don't feel too bad about perpetuating it.
We're now halfway through 2013, which essentially means little when it comes to films that may vie for critical accolades. The great majority of contenders will of course be released third quarter. I thought it may be a good time, however, to assess where things stand. Meryl certainly continues to hold steady near the top of most pundits' predictions for her hotly anticipated role of Violet Weston in August: Osage County. I'll just list the site and which slot they're predicting our girl.
Gold Derby: 1st overall among editors/experts/users at 21/10 odds to win.
Awards Circuit: 2nd behind Naomi Watts in Diana
Rope of Silicon: 4th
Chris Tapley at Hitfix: 2nd behind Judi Dench in Philomena
Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood: listed only as a "contender."
Awards Watch forums: 1st with 85% predicting her to be nominated.
We are so early in the race so all of these predictions are basically shots in the dark, but Meryl is essentially the frontrunner, on average, among all sites and opinions.