Sunday, September 21, 2014

Streep going supporting for "Into the Woods"?

Last year there were rumors from Gold Derby's Tom O'Nneil that Meryl may be pushed supporting for August: Osage County.  We know how that turned out, as we know how it turns out every time Meryl seems to be on the bubble for category placement.  One could argue that Streep could have been campaigned in supporting for One True Thing, The Devil Wears Prada, Julie & Julia and August.  All of those roles earned her Academy Award nominations in the lead category, where her arguably lead younger female co-stars were either relegated to supporting (Julia Roberts), or not recognized at all.

Now there are reasons to suspect that Disney may be toying with the possibility of placing Meryl in the supporting category for her role as the Witch in Into the Woods.  This weekend, Cleyton Davis of Awards Circuit updated his Oscar predictions, now placing Meryl in second place in the supporting cagtegory, where he had previously had her in lead (still top five I think but not nearly as high).  He also switched Emily Blunt from supporting to lead.  Does he know some inside information?  Also, Deadline's Pete Hammond indicated today that he feels Streep is a strong contender is supporting.   The only Gold Derbery "experts" to include Meryl in any of their predictions also do so supporting.

Again, this role could probably go either way, but the role of the the Baker's Wife, played by Emily Blunt, won the Tony for Lead Actress.  Historically the Witch is considered one of the main characters, as she has the most solo songs and is sort of a the prestige role in the musical.  Disney has already been quite obvious about giving Meryl top billing status in both the teaser trailer and first poster.  This may suggest, like so many times before, that Meryl will be their main horse in regard to awards recognition.

So what do we think?  I happen to think it's a luxury to be in the position of being able to choose which category to campaign in, as it increases the chances for a nomination.  My guess is that Meryl is in the range of 4th-6th place in the lead category.  In supporting, I'd push that to 2nd-3rd.  If you're that high up in supporting, and there is no super strong frontrunner (Patricia Arquette looks very solid right now, but possibly peaking early?), anyone can challenge for the win.  Do I think Streep will win a supporting and overall fourth Oscar for Into the Woods?  No.  Have crazier things happened?  Most definitely.

24 comments:

  1. I think Streep could win a 4th gold for ITW
    If she nails the part & vocals.

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  2. I see your points about the other films, especially The Devil Wears Prada where she had a great deal of momentum behind her that year. I am guessing the nomination meant more than a win that year as no one was going to beat Helen Mirren.

    I don’t mind if she isn’t nominated for Into The Woods as she may very well be in strong contention for Ricki and the Flash in 2015. I am hopeful they will at least try to get her into the lead category, I am just disappointed that we lost her new song from the production.

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    1. I have a feeling she'll end up being nominated, but after being relieved she was for A:OC, I told myself I can't get my hopes up for Into the Woods.

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  3. I think she can pull it off. I will be happy if she gets nominated for an academy award.

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    1. If we had to chose Meryl's least likely nomination ever, what would it be? I have to say I think it's Music of the Heart...

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    2. I think I'd have to agree with Music of the Heart. By that time some were possibly considering Streep overdue for a third and would nominate for most things. That said, I happen to really enjoy that film and Meryl was of course fantastic in it. I've read some people think Postcards from the Edge or Ironweed weren't deserving, but I totally disagree.

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  4. I honestly think Meryl can pull it off and win a 4th oscar if she is nominated in the supporting category. The Academy love her and since this role is so different from A:OC, TIL and J&J, i'm sure they will vote for her.
    I don't think she has the same chances in the lead category. And because of her much talked about nomination last year (stealing Emma Thompson's nomination etc), I have a feeling she would fall out of the top 5 and not be nominated at all.

    I agree on Music of the Heart. But in my book it makes things equal since she wasn't nominated for The Hours. One of her best roles ever!

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    1. I really agree with your assessment in regard to lead vs supporting chances. I think it's VERY unlikely that Meryl can win for this film/role. Possible, yes. Probable, definitely not.

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    3. I cringe every time people talk about Emma Thompson's nomination. She was excellent in a good film but wasn't THAT amazing. Plus no one talked about any of the males snatching noms from the likes of Tom Hanks.

      I agree she has better chances of a win in Supporting but at this point I don't think she needs another win - just collect another nomination to put her well out of reach.

      I hope this year Julianne Moore takes the lead award as I think she's awesome. Looking forward to the new flock of movies over the next couple of months.

      If Benedict Cumberbatch can pull off Alan Turing I hope he gets gold too. Shaping up to be another crowded year anyways!

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    4. I think Julianne Moore (finally) and Steve Carell is going to take the lead awards. Another loss for Amy Adams, poor girl!

      Patricia Arquette looks very solid at the moment, but I'm guessing on a early peak. I'll bet my money on either Meryl, Laura Dern or Emma Stone.

      I love award season and that Meryl has a oscarbuzz almost every year!

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    5. Right now I'd have to go with Julianne Moore and Ben Cumberbatch as well. Julianne's would seem like a long time coming. Carell will likely be nominated, but he might suffer a bit from early peaking as well.

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  5. Meryl can win in supporting for ITW. 2 lead and 2 supporting wins sounds awesome to me...

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    1. Not as good as 4 lead and 1 supporting! I know it's wrong but I have always felt supporting was a lesser achievement or honor than lead. I realise it's still awesome but it always seems like a less competitive win for some reason.

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    2. Four Oscars sounds great. I agree with CJames, however, that lead in my opinion is a bigger deal. This is not to minimize the work of anyone who has won in a supporting role, but if one gets a lead nomination, it's generally understood that that person was one of the driver of the entire film.

      Bottom line: Streep is NOT winning for Into the Woods in lead, and in fact would have a tough time cracking the top five. Supporting, a much better chance of getting in and yes, a better chance at winning, but I'd still put those chances as less than 10%.

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    3. Jeff! Don't be pessimistic. I remember before Prada came out people were just hoping it would be a commercial success but her performance kind of ran away with the film and if it hadn't been for Mirren she could have been the front-runner.

      If Meryl does something unexpected with the material and makes it feel new then she could build a great deal of momentum..

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    4. I don't disagree with any of the things you just mentioned. Still an uphill battle for her though. Trust me I'd love for her to win, and it isn't some reverse psychology I'm trying to pull with myself so I don't get disappointed. I just know it's not realistic to think she'll be a frontrunner. I hope her performance proves that wrong!

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  6. I think her chances are more than 10% for a win in a supporting role. Female supporting roles in musicals often get praise. Jennifer Hudson. Catherine Zeta Jones. Anne Hathaway. And I think Meryl's has the best and most prestige role in this musical.
    And as you wrote. If they campaign her for a leading role. I don't see her in the top 5.

    I would love a win for her with this one. And then she can win a lead one further down the road to make it a 5th. Knocking Hepburn off the throne.

    Btw. Any more news on The Good House?

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    1. Now the big thing is to see in which category they'll actually campaign her! GOod points on supporting roles in musicals over the past decade. Those were all people on their first or second nomination, however.

      So glad you asked about The Good House! Sadly there is no news on it that I have learned. But I will say that in an interview in October of last year, Ann Leary said it was in "very early stages" and that the script wasn't even completed yet. Meryl starts filming Ricki and the Flash very soon, so assuming the script for The Good House is now near complete, I imagine they'll put it together to fill early next fall. She films Master Class starting around January. I hope The Good House happens. I read the book and the character of Hildy is fascinating!

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    2. I can't wait for Masterclass. I love when Meryl plays real life characters. I hope someday she plays Hillary Clinton.

      Looks like it will be a fun couple of years with Suffragette, Ricki.., Masterclass, The Good House and I guess some other upcoming projects. She really is in her prime ;)

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  7. Can Meryl win a 4th oscar in the next 5 years ?

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    1. Why not? Not even out of the realm of possibility if she's goes supporting for Into the Woods. It'll depend on how great her performances are, AND the quality of film. Ricki and the Flash has all the requirements of being great...screenwriter, director, Meryl playing guitar and interacting with estranged family including her real daughter Mamie. It's a prestige project. The Good House is baity on paper as well if it happens. Fingers crossed on that one.

      If we get speculative, what if 3-5 years from now she does something SUPER baity like playing Catherine the Great or Susan B Anthony in biopics? I've thought it would be so interesting to see her as Indira Gandhi, but that would likely ruffle a lot of feathers being a white woman. Regardless, the answer to your question, in my opinion, is most definitely "yes."

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